My Winter 2022/2023 forecast

Winter is just around the corner. The question is what type of winter will our area, Knoxville TN to Rome GA, have? I will explain in my annual winter weather forecast. Before I begin I think it is important to look at my forecast from last year as well as last year’s winter data. Last winter I forecasted a wild winter. I predicted our winter would have a mix of cold and warmth. Overall, I stated last year’s winter would have above average temperatures. Winter of 2021/2022 had above average temperatures, but it was a little deceiving. December had way above average temperatures, January had below average temperatures, and February had slightly above average temperatures. Rainfall was slightly below average for December and January. February had way above average rainfall. The three main events from last year’s winter was severe storms at the end of December 2021. The storms at the end of 2021 produced damaging winds and 2 tornadoes in Bartow/Cherokee Counties in Georgia. In February some locations experienced flooding. In March an unusual winter storm occurred bringing 1-4 inches of snow in the valley.

Last year’s winter was dominated by a La Nina. This is the same La Nina that developed in 2020. La Nina is expected to stick around into winter. For the third year in a row a La Nina is going to impact our winter. The question is does La Nina stick around the entire winter or does La Nina fade? If La Nina starts to fade in February we will likely go into a Neutral pattern. I have included both possibilities in my winter weather forecast.

Here is what I am forecasting for our area.

Another wild winter with mixes of warmth and cold. Do not be surprised if we have a few weeks of below average temperatures. January of 2022 had a few weeks of below average temperatures and that is why January was below average. However, I suspect temps will be slightly to above average overall. How long La Nina sticks around will determine our temperatures. If La Nina last all winter temps will be above average. If La Nina starts to fade we will likely have an above average December but near normal temps for January/February. In that case our temps would be slightly above average.

Most of East Tennessee will have near average rainfall. However, North Georgia will have below average rainfall. On the other hand, I suspect February we will see an uptick in rainfall. In fact, February could start a pattern change and a more active storm track. For the past three winters February has been very wet and active.

Like most winter La Nina’s, our weather could be wild at times. In addition, during La Nina winters Kentucky, Tennessee, North Georgia, North Alabama, and North Mississippi are often transition zones. Water temps in the Gulf of Mexico should continue to be above average. Above average water temps in the Gulf will provide fuel for storms. If cold air is in place this can lead to winter weather especially ice. It could also give us a chance for snow. However, with warm air in place this can provide fuel for severe weather. I’m really concerned with storm potential in February. During La Nina and even Neutral winters the jet stream starts to sag farther south in February. That is why for the past few years we have had an active storm track and wet conditions for the month of February.

What did I base my forecast on?

I looked at water temps in the Gulf and the Equator Pacific also known as the ENSO region. Water temps in the ENSO are still below average indicating a La Nina pattern. What goes on in the ENSO determines weather patterns. It is possible 2023 could be a transition year. We may go from La Nina to Neutral pattern. I looked at past winters that were transition years especially from La Nina to Neutral. I believe the past can tell us a lot about weather patterns.

For example, the Winter of 2000/2001. Winter 2000/2001 was a wild winter. La Nina dominated most of the winter but in late February La Nina started to fade into a Neutral Pattern. December had above average temperatures, January had below average temperatures, and February had average temperatures. Overall temps were near average to slightly above average. Rainfall was average in Tennessee and slightly below average in North Georgia. February saw an uptick in rain and storm patterns.

Another factor I considered was the massive Tonga Volcano Eruption this year. Earlier this year an underwater volcano near the nation of Tonga in the South Pacific erupted. This massive eruption sent historic levels of ash into the atmosphere. This is one reason drought conditions have persisted around the world including the USA. As historic levels of ash can disrupt rainfall in parts of the world. In addition, it could be a reason we have not seen that many tropical systems in the Far Atlantic this year as unusually dry air has persisted in the Far Atlantic. Sometimes when we have massive volcano eruptions like the Tonga Eruption it can take 12-18 months for the ash in the atmosphere to dissipate.

In Conclusion

A wild winter with periods of cold and warmth. This will likely mean our area will have chances for some winter weather, and severe thunderstorms. Similar to last year’s winter.

Even thought we may have weeks of below average temperatures, temperatures will be slightly above to above average. How warm will depend on if La Nina sticks around or starts to fade.

The drought will likely continue into 2023. East TN will likely have near average rainfall while North Georgia has below average rainfall.

Watch for February to be an active month due to a possible pattern flip. I expect rainfall and storm tracks to increase for February. Once again, similar to the past few years concerning the month of February. We may also see an uptick in storm chances. February is when we could start to put a dent in the ongoing drought.