2013 Winter

As 2012 comes to a close we will be going into a new year but at the same time a brand new season and that is Winter. Winters in Southeast Tennessee are typically mild compared to other parts of the country. A typical Winter day will see a high about 50 and night time temperatures drop to around 28 degrees. Snowfall is scare but it can fall usually Southeast Tennessee averages about 5 inches of snowfall the mountains average much more. Some winters see no snow while some see a few. For example Winter of 2010 saw 14 inches of snowfall due to an active jet pattern and cold air. Winters can also bring severe storms and some winters have it all snow, severe thunderstorms. So what will winter of 2013 be like?

To be honest this type of winter is hard to predict because while there is an El-Nino, which usually brings colder air and increases winter precipitation it is not a strong El-Nino. In 2009 we had a strong El-Nino which carried other into early 2010 before changing into a La Nina pattern. The 2009/2010 winter we saw 14 inches of snowfall. But as I stated this year’s El-Nino is not strong. Weak El-Nino’s tend to cause colder than average Winters for our area but how much do they influence snowfall is up in the air. Some weak El-Nino’s have brought snowfall and ice storms others have just brought colder conditions. Here are several scenarios that could happen.

Scenario #1 is the El-Nino strengthens in that case we would have greater chance of snowfall and ice storms and much cooler than average temperatures. Moderate to strong El-Nino’s cool the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean temperatures while the Tropical Pacific water temperatures warm up. The Western United States tends to be warmer but the East is much colder. If this scenario happened then Southeast Tennessee could see a few winter storms.

Scenario #2 the El-Nino stays the same intensity, this is the most tricky most likely the temperatures would be below average. Their would probably be a few winter storms but not significant ones, what I mean by significant is a bad ice storm or a snowstorm over 6 inches. On the other hand, this one is tricky because weak EL-Ninos have produced some significant winter storms. Most of the time the jet stream patter is low enough to bring snow but the cold arctic air stays further north. However sometimes the arctic air is able to dive south which would enhance snowfall

Scenario#3 The El-Nino dissipates and we go into a Neutral pattern. If this scenario happens we would probably have an average winter with near normal precipitation, near normal snowfall and temperatures would probably be average.

Scenario#4 El-Nion dissipates and La Nina returns, this one probably will not happen. If it where to happen depending on the strength of the La-Nina our temperatures would be above average but snowfall would be scarce but we would probably have a better chance of seeing severe thunderstorms instead of ice storms. Note that severe thunderstorms can be possible in all scenarios if the conditions are right.

So how will 2013’s winter will be like? In my opinion i see Scenario 2 and #3 happening, #1 could happen but usually stronger El Nino’s have already been in full swing come Late November so while it could happen and it cannot be ruled out, the pacific water temperatures have not warmed up which would indicate it getting stronger

I think we will see temps slightly below normal, I do think we will have a few chances of snow, but unless the El-Nino really strengthens we probably will not see several significant snowfalls. Rainfall amounts look to be average to slightly below average

Autism and Drugs

Disclaimer: The material discussed is controversial and some would argue it is a political issue. I’m not claiming any party the topics discussed are huge concerns

Legalizing drugs particularly marijuana is controversial and as of this writing two states have legalized it Washington and Colorado. They are some other states that are thinking about making it legal. I will admit this greatly concerns me not just for the Non Autistic Population but for the Autistic population as well. There are several reasons. I think it is important to realize that alcohol abuse is high in the Autism community. Research shows that as many as 50-60% of Autistic people aged 12 and older drink alcohol. The research shows there are two reasons why. Alcohol is used as a coping tool. Life can be stressful for those of us on the Autism Spectrum and a lot of them do not have the help and support they need so they turn to alcohol and what happens is the alcohol becomes a bigger problem. Second, Autistics desire to be social, but they do not know how, or they are rejected. So what he or she does is they start drinking trying to fit in and be accepted in society. So what does this have to do with marijuana the same principle could apply and that has me concerned.

People who are on the spectrum want to be seen as part of society, they want to have friends, they want to contribute to society but a lot of times it seems like society rejects people on the spectrum. My concern is that young adult Autistics will start to turn to marijuana thinking it will elevate their social level. If more states legalize marijuana it would be more easy for Autistics to get a hold of it. From what we know is that peer pressure is very real in the age groups 12-32 years old. What a person sees their friends do they are more likely to adapt to that behavior. From what we know in the Non-Autistic population is a person has friends abusing drugs they are more likely to start drug use. What is scary is I could see an Autistic person feeling pressure to try drugs to fit in. I also have another concern is due to the stress and desire to be seen as normal Autistics could start using drugs as comfort in trying to deal with the stress of life and not being social. Another concern is while Autistics are smart they may not understand social boundaries and understand that they need to say NO or know the risk drug use has.

Another thing that concerns me is we know the harmful effects of drugs to a Non-Autistic person, increased crime, rage, anger, depression, suicide, families being destroyed not to mention damage to the brain, heart and other organs of the body. But what we do not know is if the Autistic individual would have worse effects since the neurons in the Autistic brain are different. I would argue that it would be worse compared to a regular person. Also since Diabetes and other health problems are prevalent in the Autistic population the organs in an Autistic individual sometimes function differently. For example the pancreas may not produce enough insulin. Now factor in drug use the brain, the heart, the liver and kidneys are going to be impacted and that spells trouble.

Marijuana also is a gateway drug. Now some people would argue it is nobody’s business what drugs people use and that their is no side effects of marijuana. Okay that is debatable and another debate for another day. But here is what we know from studies. People usually start using alcohol or marijuana to start off. In time what happens is the effects of marijuana ware off. So people start turning to more deadly drugs to get a better high effect. The drugs that most people turn too are cocaine and Heroin and even LSD these drugs are more toxic and deadly. If an Autistic person starts to use Marijuana it concerns me that due to social desires they will try other drugs that could kill them in one use. Also drug dealers often times pray on people like ASD by sending the message this will make you cool, this will make you forget your troubles. I find this ver troubling

So what can be done. As a Christian I feel like that people who work with Autistic people need to realize that there is comfort in Christ. Christ died for everybody including Autistics. Second people who work with people on the spectrum need to teach self advocacy and explain the harmful effects of drugs. I did not know I was Autistic till I was a young adult but ever since I was little my parents told me to be my own advocate and Say No to drugs. My parents told me if anybody offers you drugs Say No. We even did some role playing . Even if a person says taking drugs would make the individual feel better or have their favorite things they need to say no. People who work with Autistics need to make sure their clients fully understand the harmful effects of illicit drugs. Even if people do know believe in God people should still talk to their  autistic person and make sure they understand and have self advocacy.

With states legalizing illegal drugs that means it is going to increase along with the harmful side effects and that is not good for the general public but for the Autistic community as well. If more states legalize Marijuana then that means it will be easier for people on the spectrum to get