For the fifth year in a row a tropical storm or hurricane has formed before the official start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. On May 20th Sub Tropical Storm Andrea formed off the Southeastern coast. Hurricane season runs from June 1st to November the 30th. August, September and October are the most active months. In fact, August 15-October 20th is considered the peak of the season.
Last year was the 3rd year in a row of above average seasons. NOAA defines an average season of having 11 named storm, 6 becoming hurricanes and 2 become major hurricanes (categories 3, 4 and 5). Since 1995 we have been in what is known as the second active phase in the Atlantic Basin. Since that time the average is 12 named storms, 7 hurricane and 3 major hurricanes.
Last year my first outlook I called for a below average season due to the high possibility of El Nino forming. However, when I released my mid season out look. I called for an above average season with 12-16 named storms, 6-8 hurricanes and 2-3 major hurricanes as conditions remained neutral. Last year there ended up being 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. Conditions in the Pacific Osculation remained neutral which favors slightly above average seasons. So the question is what about 2019?
I think we are going to have a near average to slightly above average. I am forecasting 11-15 named storms, 5-7 hurricane and 2-3 major hurricanes. El Nino is supposed to hang on until Summer then fade. This El Nino has been a weak one. In the past weak El Nino events have produced near average seasons. But I believe condition will change to Neutral near the most active months. Neutral favors slightly above average to above average hurricane seasons . If El Nino hangs on until August I think we will have a more average season. But as I stated, I believe we will go into neutral.
There are signs that El Nino is starting to fade. Pacific Ocean temps in the Pacific Osculation area are 0.6 degrees Celsius above average. El Nino is defined when Pacific Ocean Temps in the Osculation Zone are greater than 0.5 Celsius for at least 3 months. El Nino peaked in late February to mid March. Since then water temps in the Pacific Osculation have been trending downward. Neutral is defined as when water temps in the Osculation zone are -0.5-0.5 Celsius. La Nina is when water temps in the Osculation are colder than -0.5 Celsius for at least 3 months. So, the water temps are trending toward Neutral.
In the Atlantic Ocean there are pockets of cooler water temps in hurricane development zones. The cooler pockets are off the coast of Africa. We usually see development in that area in August, September and early October. The water temps though are only slightly below normal this goes along with a weak El Nino. The rest of the Atlantic Basin: Gulf of Mexico, Southeast Coast, and Caribbean have above average water temps. Those areas are other places of development. The water temps are increasing this goes along with conditions changing from El Nino to Neutral.
No matter what type of season 2019 brings one always needs to be prepared. As it only takes one storm to make it a bad year. While us forecasters can forecast what the season is expected to be like; we cannot tell how many storms will make landfall. In 2016, 2017, and 2018 the US was hammered with hurricanes. 2016, Matthew did severe damage in South Carolina. 2017 had Harvey, Irma, and Maria striking the US and its territories as category 4 hurricanes. Last year Florence brought historic flooding to the Carolinas while Michael made landfall in Florida as a category 5 hurricane. 2010 was an above average hurricane season but not one hurricane made landfall in the USA or it territories. But for Canada, Mexico, and the Caribbean it was a different story. Some years have had very low activity and still been destructive. 1983 had near record low activity in the Atlantic Ocean. But Hurricane Alicia made landfall in Texas as a category 3 hurricane causing $3 Billion in damages. 1992, only had 7 named storms but Andrew made it a bad year. Andrew, made landfalls in South Florida as a category 5 hurricane and later Louisiana as a category 3 hurricane. Andrew, overall caused $27 Billion dollars in damage.
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