2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

For many late May and early June is the kickoff for summer. Many people will be traveling to the beaches from the southern tip of the Texas coast to the New England coastline. Also people will be going to other countries to see relatives or vacation. However, June is the official start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. The Atlantic Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November the 30th. Although storms have been known to form outside of the season. In an average year the Atlantic Basin will see 11 named storms, 6-7 becoming hurricanes, and 2-3 become major hurricanes (categories 3,4 and 5). Moreover, an average hurricane season will have an ACE (Accumulated Cyclonic Energy ) value of 90-100. ACE looks at how much energy a storm produces based on the storm’s intensity and longevity.

Average named storms per month
June- 0 (though storms have been known to form in June)
July- 1 named storm.
August- 2 named storms
September- 4 named storms
October-3 named storms
November-1 named storm

Climatology August, September, October, and sometimes November are the most active months. The peak of the Hurricane season is Mid August-late October. So the question is what type of Hurricane Season are we going to have for 2017? Before I answer that, I think it is a good time to talk about the naturally occurring weather patterns, El Nino, La Nina, and Neutral. To meet the Criteria a pattern must be persistent for 3 or more months in the Equatorial Pacific.

El Nino is when the Equatorial pacific water temps are 0.5 degrees Celsius or warmer for at least 3 months. Typically El Nino causes the Atlantic Ocean temperatures to be below average. It also causes strong shearing winds across the Atlantic. Thus, El Nino’s favor less hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin.

La Nina is when the Equatorial Pacific water temps are -0.5 degrees Celsius are cooler for at least 3 months. La Nina causes the Equatorial Pacific water temps to be below normal. However, La Nina causes water temps in the Atlantic Basin to be above average. Also, strong shearing winds are less present. This favors an increase in hurricane activity for the Atlantic

Neutral is when El Nino or La Nina are not present. Water temps in the Equatorial Pacific are between -0.5-0.5 for at least 3 months. Basically the water temps are near average. Neutral tends to favor average to slightly above average activity in the Atlantic Basin.

Here is what I am thinking for the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Keep in mind one named storm has already formed. Arlene back in late April.  I’m thinking we are going to have close to an average season if not slightly above average.
10-14 named storms
5-7 Hurricanes
2-3 Major Hurricanes

Last years forecast went well due to La Nina developing near the peak of the season. 2016 had 15 named storms, 7 becoming hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE value of 140. La Nina faded in March 2017. Since March 2017 we have been in the Neutral phase. As of this writing the water temps in the Equatorial Pacific have been around 0.4 degrees Celsius above average. That is still in the Neutral pattern. So how did I come up with my numbers for 2017?

I looked at water temps, the likely hood of El Nino developing, and past history. Confidence is growing that El Nino will develop sometime this year. NOAA has given the probability of an EL Nino forming 50-60%. When the El Nino forms will be key to what type of season with have. If it forms earlier than expected it could lessen hurricane activity. As a result I would expect the number of storms to be on the low end of my prediction. If El Nino forms later in the year than we could still have an above average season. While water temps are slowly warming in the Pacific they have yet to go past 0.5 degrees Celsius above average and stay there. In addition, so far water temps in the Atlantic Basin have not yet begun to cool like an El Nino pattern. In fact, the water temps are pretty close to average indicating a Neutral pattern is still in place. If El Nino does develop it would mean 2017 is a transitional year as we would be coming off a La Nina event. I looked at past seasons that have gone from La Nina to El Nino. The results have been based on when the El Nino develops

2009 Hurricane Season. In 2009 conditions begin to change from La Nina (October 2007-2008) to an El Nino type pattern. Neutral conditions were present in Spring. However, El Nino developed earlier than expected for the 2009 season. The 2009 Hurricane season was below average with 9 named storms, 3 becoming hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. El Nino rapidly developed and by summer was at its peak. This suppressed hurricane activity in the Atlantic

2006 Hurricane Season. In 2006 conditions started to change from La Nina (2004-2005) to El Nino. But Neutral conditions persisted for much of the summer. El Nino did not develop until the fall of 2006. Since El Nino developed later, the 2006 season was pretty much close to average. A total of 10 named storms formed, 5 became hurricanes and 2 became major hurricanes.

2002 Hurricane Season. In 2002 an El Nino developed but not till October. For the most part Neutral conditions were persistent for most of the 2002 Hurricane Season. The 2002 Hurricane Season was less active than the previous 3 seasons but overall slightly above average with 12 named storms forming.  Since El Nino developed in the later part of the Hurricane season it allowed for a near to slightly above average season.

1997 Hurricane Season. 1997 saw conditions rapidly change from a strong La Nina (1995 & 1996) to a strong El Nino. El Nino formed in the spring of 1997. The 1997 season was below average with 8 named storms forming , 3 became hurricanes, and only 1 reached major hurricane status. The strong El Nino caused the Atlantic water temps to be below average and increased wind shear.

So looking at past history the key is when El Nino forms. If El Nino forms earlier  the Atlantic hurricane season has seen less storms. If it forms later in the Atlantic Hurricane season the trend is to be near average in activity.  No matter how many storms form remember it only takes 1 storm to make it a bad year. While us forecasters can predict how many tropical storms or hurricanes will form. It is nearly impossible to forecast when and where they will make landfall. You always need to be prepared and take watches as well as warnings seriously.

As I stated it only takes 1 landfalling storm to make it a destructive year. For example, 1983 was a way below average season with only 4 named storms forming. However 1983 was destructive due to Hurricane Alicia. Hurricane Alicia formed off the Texas coastline. The Hurricane rapidly intensified to a category 3 hurricane before making landfall near the Houston Metro area with 115 mph winds. Alicia cost $3 Billion dollars worth of damage. In 1992 only 7 named storms formed. Yet 1992 is when hurricane Andrew made landfall. Andrew made landfall in Florida  as a category 5 hurricane then Louisiana as a category 3 hurricane. Andrew did $26.5 Billion dollars worth of damage and over 50  people perished. 2010, was way above average with 19 storms forming due to a strong La Nina. The US was spared landfalls. But for Canada and the Caribbean it was a different story. Hurricane Igor decimated the Canadian coastline causing  serious damage to New Foundland. In November of that year Hurricane Tomas made landfalls in Grenada and Haiti doing serious damage and causing lots of deaths. Thus, it is best to be prepared.

 

 

 

More Work needs to be done for Autism

Every year April is designated Autism awareness month. However, for parents or people with Autism every day should be about Autism Awareness. As a person with Autism it made me think more progress needs to be done in Autism acceptance. Over the past 6 years it seems like we have gone backwards not forward for Autism Rights. I have read and seen on TV some very disturbing things that need to change. In fact, over the past 6 years a lot of damage has been done to the Autism Community.  I have found that a lot needs to be changed. I hope to address some of these issues in this blog.

Autism is a neurological disorder that effects a person social skills. As of 2016 Autism occurs 1 out of 68 people and 1 out of 50 students has a form of Autism. Autism, can vary among each individual. Some people may have  a severe form of Autism and not be able to communicate. While others may have mild or higher functioning forms of Autism. Those with mild or high functioning forms may be able to drive, communicate, and do other things that normal people do. As the saying goes if you have met one person with Autism you have met one person with Autism. Sadly, though a lot of people even politicians do not see it that way especially after a tragic event that occurred in 2012.

In late 2012 a terrible tragedy occurred at Sandy Hook School in Connecticut. A school shooting occurred and one of the largest since Columbine as well as  Virginia Tech. People were horrified that Adam Lanza would open fire on children mostly aged 6-9 years old before committing suicide. Questions begun to be asked on what would drive Lanza to do such a horrible thing? The media and even politicians started to point out Lanza had Autism. Soon Autism was blamed on an act of terror. The media ignored that Lanza had severe psychological issues and focused on Autism. The media created a label that all Autistic people were violent and could go on rampages. Several months after that event the media focused on the Autism. People started to hate people who had Autism. Autism began to be associated with acts of violence. Two years later a California college student went on a rampage. The California Student slit his  three roommates’ throats, then mowed three people down with his car before leaving a suicide note. The note talked about how he could not communicate and had turned down for intercourse among females. Once again the media blamed Autism despite that the California student did not have Autism.

Violence against Autistic students was reported, several parents reported getting hate mail, and even I had to deal with the hate. The media blaming Autism once again created a dangerous label. Here it is 2017 and these labels still exists. Still, today when I tell people that I have Autism I tend to get two things. The first one being are you going to snap and go on a rampage. Yes, its sad that the media has created hate toward a group of people. It did not help things that the media coined the term Autism rage. I also get you do not look Autistic. I often think “are we supposed to look a certain way and act a certain way”?  In addition, to the media politicians have also done a lot to hurt the Autism Community.  Last year Democrat Senator Chris Murphy from Connecticut created a lot of controversy in a filibuster about guns.

Chris Murphy stated “What happened at Sandy Hook should be about guns, but it should also be about Autism. Lanza was a man who had Autism and could not control it. He could not communicate so he got a gun and shot up a school to communicate to people. Autism is an epidemic in this country. It scares me that you have Autistic people that are the r-word (retarded) in this country. When they feel like they do not know how to communicate they commit acts of violence. We have got to do something not just about guns but about those with Autism in this country” Said by Chris Murphy during a senate filibuster last year.

Murphy’s statement were rebuked by other senators, disability groups, and civil rights groups. However after his statement the media once again blamed Autism. Murphy stated the same quote when the ALCU opposed what is now known as the Disability Gun Ban The Disability gun ban was a law that was to go in effect this year. It stated if you had a disability, was on disability, or had someone managing your finances you were automatically banned from owning a gun. The ALCU opposed it stating  it was discrimination, labeled people, and eliminated due process.  This law was repealed though by Congress earlier this year.  Another problem is Autism Speaks. If you listen to those of us who have Autism we often say “Autism Speaks does not speak for us” Autism Speaks has done a lot of damage to people with Autism. Autism Speaks wants to cure those of us on the spectrum. A lot of us do not want to be cured we want to be accepted. Furthermore, after Sandy Hook Autism Speaks ran an add that was very hurtful. The ad stated

“I can make your child out of touch with the world, I can make your child go into fits of rage, and I can make your child into a monster. My name is Autism please learn more at Autism Speaks”.

That was very hurtful and offensive and once again lead to labeling. The media, politicians, and even Autism Speaks do not have a clue when it comes to Autism. First of all Autism in itself is not mental its neurological. Now, sometimes they are mental issues that go along with Autism but not always. Second, despite what Senator Murphy said people with Autism are the least likely to be perpetrators of acts of violence. In fact they are more likely to be the victim of abuse, sexual assault, and hate crimes. Also we do not want to be cured but accepted. Those of us on the spectrum can accomplish a lot of things.  In fact some of the greatest minds had Autism. Sir Newton was a physicists and it is believed he had Autism. Thomas Jefferson a founding Father and American President is believed to have Autism. Edison an inventor and one of the scientists that gave us the light bulb had Autism. Einstein who gave us understanding of nuclear physics also had Autism.

Still a lot of improvement needs to be done. If stats are correct the world is pretty hostile toward those with Autism. 60-70% of Autistic workers get fired from a job. 60% of Autistic workers are under paid. That means they make less doing the same job compared to a worker who does not have Autism.  35% of Autistic students go onto college. Over 50% of Autistic students are the victims of abuse in schools. Finally 50% of police encounters with Autistic people end up with serious injury or death to the Autistic person. If an African American has Autism that number jumps to 70%. These numbers are horrible and we should be outraged about these things.

When the Disability Rights act of 1991 was signed it was supposed to be a victory for those that had a disability. The act was supposed to give equal treatment to those that are disabled especially in schools. But how has that worked out? Well if you have Autism it has not worked out to well.  The percentage of Autism students has increased over the past twenty years mainly due to better diagnostics. Autism Students used to account for less than 0.5% of students. Now 2% or 1 out of 50 Students has Autism. That means for every school there is a good chance a few students will fall on the spectrum.

However, Autistic students as I pointed out are often the victims of abuse in schools. 40 states allow calm down rooms or dungeon rooms as they are called. A dungeon room is a small room about half the size of the average bathroom in a house. These rooms are often tight and small. In addition in some states the temperature can be adjusted in the room to make it very hot or very cold.  Often times an Autistic Student is thrown into these rooms. They have been high profile cases of gas-lighting going on. Two years ago dungeon rooms gained national attention due to a high profile case in Kentucky. An Autistic Student got overwhelmed due to flickering lights. The teacher sent him to the Principle. The Principle threw him in the dungeon room and had the School Resource Officer handcuff him to a chair. The student was cuffed to the chair and endured several kicks for over 20 minutes.  Now the school was sued but the problem is that goes on in a lot of schools and is not reported.

Many students who have Autism often find it hard to get accepted into college even if they have very good grades. It seems like over the past 6 years a lot of colleges do not want to admit Autistic Students. I again blame the media, politicians and Autism Speaks for that.  Also college can be rough on students with Autism. A lot of colleges want students to be social. When you have Autism social skills can be a nightmare at times. To make things worse a lot of fellow students do not understand.  I would like to see that change.

The workforce is also hostile toward those on the spectrum. Autistic workers are often fired or underpaid even if they are highly qualified. Nobody really knows the unemployment rate for those on the spectrum. But some have estimated it to be between 25-40%. Also a lot of police units do not understand how to encounter an Autistic person or what to do if they encounter one.  If a person does not make eye contact, or address the officer it can start to go downhill quick. The officer so many times thinks the person is not listening to them or obeying them. If the officer has a siren and the Autistic person starts to spin, flap or run away so many times the officer takes it as a threat. This is how Autistic people get injured or even killed by officers.

So what would changes do I think need to be done and would like to see.

First of all the media, politicians and Autism Speaks needs to stop blaming acts of violence on Autism. It is labeling. Labeling leads to stereotypes, stereotypes leads to prejudice, prejudice leads to racism, racism leads to hate, and hate leads to violence. So to the Media STOP IT!!!

Laws need to be changed. 20 states have wording that may or may not allow a person with Autism to get married that needs to changed. Also Autism does not need to be classified as a mental disease. I would also like to see dungeon rooms completely banned. Dungeon rooms or calm down rooms do not help the student. In fact it can lead to trauma and make the situation worse.

Officers need to have proper training on how to handle Autistics. Thankfully some organizations are out there that are trying to do just that. Police Departments that have officers go further training on how to handle special needs as well as Autistic people saw a reduction in injuries and death. More protection needs to be given to Autistic workers in the work place.  It is discriminatory and should be an outrage what goes on in the work force for those that are on the spectrum.

In terms of Education, teachers need to be more understanding about some of their students. That student that does not make eye contact may have Autism and is actually paying attention. Also if you have an Autistic Student try to go out of your way to accommodate them. In addition, Colleges should not be afraid of Autistic Students. They should be more accepting and admit them. Give Autistic Students  a chance. I would love to see the numbers of Autistic students attending college to go from 35% to 60%.

So while Autism Awareness month has come and gone. Every day should be Autism Awareness. So much more needs to be done. We need to start accepting Autistic people for what they are and not want to cure or eliminate them. We need to change the attitude that the media, Autism Speaks, and politicians like Chris Murphy created. It is going to take a lot of work but we can do it. I would like to see a new civil rights movement start focused on the disabled and Autism. I also want to be part of the change as a person with Autism myself.  I will challenge people every day to accept Autism and raise awareness.