The Atlantic Hurricane Season starts June 1st and last to November 30th. However, storms can form outside of the season sometimes in May or December. The most active months are August, September, October and sometimes November. In an average year the Atlantic Basin will see 11 named storms, 6-7 becoming hurricanes, and 2-3 becoming major hurricanes (category 3, 4 and 5). In an average season the ACE value will be between 90-100. ACE (Accumulated Cyclonic Energy), looks at storms intensity and their duration. So the question is what will 2016 be like?
Before I answer that lets take a look at last year’s season. The 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season last year was just slightly below average with 11 named storms, 4 became hurricanes, 2 became major hurricanes, and the ACE value was 67. The reason for a below season last year was due to El Nino. El Nino, caused drier air over the Atlantic, cooler water temps and strong wind shear. So, storms had a hard time forming due to the El Nino. Still, last year despite being a below average season had bad storms. Tropical Storm Erika devastated the tiny island of Dominica. Hurricane Joaquin, which was a category 4 hurricane, made landfall in the Bahamas. The point is it only takes one hurricane to make it a bad year and everybody needs to be prepared. In the USA anybody from Texas up to the Coast of Maine needs to be prepared. 1983, was near record low activity with only 4 storms, yet Hurricane Alicia made landfall in Texas as a category 3 hurricane. Alicia cost $3 Billion in damages. In 1992 a below average season, Hurricane Andrew made landfall in Florida as a Category 5 hurricane and then Louisiana as a category 3 hurricane costing $26.5 Billion. On the other hand, 2010 had 19 named storms and none made landfall in the USA. But, in 2010 Hurricane Igor decimated Canada and then Hurricane Tomas decimated the Caribbean. So, always be prepared as it only takes one.
Now, back to how 2016 is looking. I’m thinking we are going to have an average to slightly above average season. Right now I’m forecasting 11-14 named storms, 6-8 of them becoming hurricanes and 3 becoming major hurricanes. Keep in mind we have already had a hurricane in the Atlantic; Alex formed in January first time that has happened since 1978. The reason I’m forecasting an average to slightly above average season is EL Nino is weakening and its expected to be gone by Fall. Also NOAA has given a 50% chance of La Nina forming. Neutral and La Nina conditions tend to favor storm development across the Atlantic. Both cause more moisture over the ocean, warmer temps and less wind shear. However, when and if the La Nina forms is the elephant in the room. If La Nina forms earlier then expected then the amount of named storms will be on the higher end of my forecast range. If it forms later then I think we will have more of an average season.
I looked at past Hurricane Seasons when the Atlantic has transitioned from an El Nino to La Nina as a reference. In 1998, We went from an El Nino to a La Nina and it was an above average season with 14 named storms, 10 becoming hurricanes and 3 became major hurricanes. The La Nina of 1998, formed in Summer allowing a very active late summer and fall hurricane activity. El Nino formed in summer of 2002 and lasted till Spring 2003. Summer and fall of 2003 we were in a Neutral phrase and had above average season 16 named storms. In 2004 a La Nina formed but it formed later in the year. The 2004 Hurricane Season did not have its first named storm till August. But it still was an above average season with 15 named storms. In 2010, La Nina formed in late summer and early fall. This allowed the months of August, September, October, and November to be very active with tropical systems. Thus, when the La Nina develops is key.
I would not be surprised to see the 2016 Hurricane Season start off to a slow start. Even though El Nino is weakening it could still cause hostile conditions for the first few months of the Hurricane Season. There is a chance that water temps might still be a little cool, with drier air, and wind shear. However, that will probably fade as we go into the climatology active months of the season. Keep in mind 75% of storms form in the months of August, September, October, and even November.
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