Remembering the 1993 Super Storm

30 years ago a historic storm impacted parts of the South, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast parts of the United States. This historic event was later dubbed the Storm of the Century, Super Storm 93, or the Blizzard of 1993. It is hard to believe that this event unfolded 30 years ago March 12th-14th 1993. I remember this event like it was yesterday because my area was hit hard with this storm system.

The week before the Super Storm impacted my area temperatures were in the 60’s and sometimes in the 70’s. For my area (Southeast Tennessee and North Georgia) that was nothing out of the ordinary. In fact, it was normal to have highs in the 60’s and 70’s going into the middle of March. I can remember local meteorologists stating that the following week we would have to really watch as a potent storm system could develop in the gulf. The local meteorologists also stated that how very cold air would be in place and we could have a historic winter storm. I was 8 years old and I can remember people brushing it off. A lot of people did not believe a significant winter storm would occur in the middle of March. Normally in March my area has to worry about severe thunderstorms including tornadoes, but not a winter storm.

Around March 9th 1993 the local meteorologists were using the term blizzard. Some of the local meteorologists said we could get over 18 inches of snow. The Weather Channel said that my area alone could get 18-26 inches of snow. In addition, all meteorologists used the term thunder snow as we could hear thunder when the blizzard moved in. I had been into meteorology since age three, so I knew what a blizzard was. I was full of glee that I could experience such a historic event. I kept thinking to myself “will I really see and experience a blizzard. Will I also get to see lightning and hear my favorite sound thunder”.

Around March 10th/11th very cold air filtered into my area. The seasonable March weather was replaced with very cold temperatures. Also the low pressure system started to deepen in the Gulf of Mexico. The storm moved northeast. Late March 12th the storm system started to move in. Snowfall started to occur later that night. On March 13th I heard the thunder and saw the lightning. I gleefully jumped out of my bed and I could not believe what I was see outside of my window. The snow was coming down so hard that I could not see. Moreover, the wind was really howling. My parents where in shock as they could not believe what they were witnessing. They told me that nothing like this had happened in their lifetime. My parents told me they had witnessed flooding, very bad thunderstorms, and tornadoes, but nothing like this.

The snow kept coming down and the wind continued to howl. As power lines started to break we lost power at my house. By the nighttime the snowstorm had ended for my area. I later learned that as the storm system moved inland it produced a storm surge on the Gulf Coast. The surge was described as being like a tropical system. In the state of Florida a squall line produced damaging winds and 11 confirmed tornadoes. Some of the tornadoes were F2 or higher. The next day me and my parents had to get a yardstick to measure the snow. I observed 24 inches (2 feet) of snow, Chattanooga got 20 inches, several places in North Georgia got 18-21 inches, and Knoxville TN got 12-15 inches of snow. Some of the higher elevations in my area saw more than 26 inches.

We were without power for a few days. Due to the temperatures being very cold the snow did not melt. To keep the house warm my parents used the wood burning heater. It felt funny having to use the wood heater in March. Eventually, power was restored, but we could still not get out to go to work or school. In fact, school was shut down for the entire week. After impacting my area the storm system moved up the East Coast of the USA. The storm system would bring more than 3 feet of snow to some places in the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast.

When power was restored we were able to see our local news stations. Local news crews showed pictures. Some of the snow drifts were more than 3 feet against buildings and homes. Several trees and power lines were down. There were several pictures of cars stuck in the snow. Eventually, warm weather returned and the snow melted. As the snow melted another problem developed and that was flooding. When the snow melted it saturated the ground. 20-24 inches of wet snow would equal 2-4 inches of rain. Indeed, many counties reported flooding. I was still in shock at what I witnessed. As the years went by my area saw many severe weather events including tornado outbreaks, which is what we normally have to worry about. My area has also seen some winter storms that produced ice or snow. But none of them rank near the top as the Super Storm of 93 did. Indeed, the Blizzard of 1993 was a historic event for my area.

When I was in college I took a lot of atmospheric, climate, and earth science classes. I would earn two science degrees. Basically, I’m a meteorologists, just not on TV. I can remember one of my professors doing an analogy of why this storm was not just historic but bad. From Mid February to Middle of March there was an active jet stream across the Mid and Upper South. This is why in late February my area was hit hard with a severe weather/tornado outbreak in late February 1993. This same jet pattern carried waves of energy over my area. A few days before the blizzard a Polar Vortex brought very chilly air all the way down to Central Mississippi, Central Alabama, and Central Georgia. In fact, some places saw record lows for the month of March. Then you had a low pressure system developing in Texas. This was nothing out of the ordinary as a lot of times these lows develop in the Gulf and move northward. This is sometimes how my area can get severe weather. But this time there was very chilly air in place.

The water temperatures in the Gulf were unusually warm for the month of March. As the wave of low pressure moved into the Gulf it started to rapidly deepen into a very strong low pressure system. The High Pressure to the north and the jet stream pulled this storm system northeastward. The warm water temps in the Gulf not only fueled this storm system but it provided it with lots of moisture. This is why there was high snowfall amounts in places like Dalton GA, Chattanooga TN, Gatlinburg TN, and etc. The warm air from the Gulf also caused warm air to stay over Florida. The storm system winds aloft provided wind shear. Severe thunderstorms developed and moved over Florida. Ingredients were favorable for several tornadoes and that is what happened. The winds around the storm’s center and wind aloft also created a storm surge on the Gulf Coast.

As the storm moved off the East Coast it found another power source for fuel and moisture. That source was the Gulf Stream. The Storm started to intensify some more. As it moved inland it produced snowfall totals over 30 inches in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. I remember my professor talking about this particular event for almost the entire class period. Indeed, this storm was the answer to one of the questions on an exam. Looking back on it now it is easy to see why this storm was called a Super Storm. This storm had everything in it, storm surge, tornadoes, high winds, and historic snowfall amounts.

One could argue the Blizzard of 1996 was similar to the Super Storm 93. In fact both storm systems originated in the Gulf. The Blizzard of 1996 brought freezing rain and snow to the south, but nothing like 1993. Then the storm rapidly deepened over the Gulf Stream. The Blizzard of 1996 produced 3 feet of snow in parts of Pennsylvania, and Maryland. Other places in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast saw 20-30 inches from the storm of 1996 just like the Blizzard of 93 had done.

Here it is 30 years since the Blizzard of 1993 occurred and I remember it like it was yesterday. I don’t think i will ever forget this storm due to how historic it was. I have since studied and analyzed this storm system. I am still amazed 30 years later on how all the ingredients came together to produce the Super Storm of 1993.

My Winter 2022/2023 forecast

Winter is just around the corner. The question is what type of winter will our area, Knoxville TN to Rome GA, have? I will explain in my annual winter weather forecast. Before I begin I think it is important to look at my forecast from last year as well as last year’s winter data. Last winter I forecasted a wild winter. I predicted our winter would have a mix of cold and warmth. Overall, I stated last year’s winter would have above average temperatures. Winter of 2021/2022 had above average temperatures, but it was a little deceiving. December had way above average temperatures, January had below average temperatures, and February had slightly above average temperatures. Rainfall was slightly below average for December and January. February had way above average rainfall. The three main events from last year’s winter was severe storms at the end of December 2021. The storms at the end of 2021 produced damaging winds and 2 tornadoes in Bartow/Cherokee Counties in Georgia. In February some locations experienced flooding. In March an unusual winter storm occurred bringing 1-4 inches of snow in the valley.

Last year’s winter was dominated by a La Nina. This is the same La Nina that developed in 2020. La Nina is expected to stick around into winter. For the third year in a row a La Nina is going to impact our winter. The question is does La Nina stick around the entire winter or does La Nina fade? If La Nina starts to fade in February we will likely go into a Neutral pattern. I have included both possibilities in my winter weather forecast.

Here is what I am forecasting for our area.

Another wild winter with mixes of warmth and cold. Do not be surprised if we have a few weeks of below average temperatures. January of 2022 had a few weeks of below average temperatures and that is why January was below average. However, I suspect temps will be slightly to above average overall. How long La Nina sticks around will determine our temperatures. If La Nina last all winter temps will be above average. If La Nina starts to fade we will likely have an above average December but near normal temps for January/February. In that case our temps would be slightly above average.

Most of East Tennessee will have near average rainfall. However, North Georgia will have below average rainfall. On the other hand, I suspect February we will see an uptick in rainfall. In fact, February could start a pattern change and a more active storm track. For the past three winters February has been very wet and active.

Like most winter La Nina’s, our weather could be wild at times. In addition, during La Nina winters Kentucky, Tennessee, North Georgia, North Alabama, and North Mississippi are often transition zones. Water temps in the Gulf of Mexico should continue to be above average. Above average water temps in the Gulf will provide fuel for storms. If cold air is in place this can lead to winter weather especially ice. It could also give us a chance for snow. However, with warm air in place this can provide fuel for severe weather. I’m really concerned with storm potential in February. During La Nina and even Neutral winters the jet stream starts to sag farther south in February. That is why for the past few years we have had an active storm track and wet conditions for the month of February.

What did I base my forecast on?

I looked at water temps in the Gulf and the Equator Pacific also known as the ENSO region. Water temps in the ENSO are still below average indicating a La Nina pattern. What goes on in the ENSO determines weather patterns. It is possible 2023 could be a transition year. We may go from La Nina to Neutral pattern. I looked at past winters that were transition years especially from La Nina to Neutral. I believe the past can tell us a lot about weather patterns.

For example, the Winter of 2000/2001. Winter 2000/2001 was a wild winter. La Nina dominated most of the winter but in late February La Nina started to fade into a Neutral Pattern. December had above average temperatures, January had below average temperatures, and February had average temperatures. Overall temps were near average to slightly above average. Rainfall was average in Tennessee and slightly below average in North Georgia. February saw an uptick in rain and storm patterns.

Another factor I considered was the massive Tonga Volcano Eruption this year. Earlier this year an underwater volcano near the nation of Tonga in the South Pacific erupted. This massive eruption sent historic levels of ash into the atmosphere. This is one reason drought conditions have persisted around the world including the USA. As historic levels of ash can disrupt rainfall in parts of the world. In addition, it could be a reason we have not seen that many tropical systems in the Far Atlantic this year as unusually dry air has persisted in the Far Atlantic. Sometimes when we have massive volcano eruptions like the Tonga Eruption it can take 12-18 months for the ash in the atmosphere to dissipate.

In Conclusion

A wild winter with periods of cold and warmth. This will likely mean our area will have chances for some winter weather, and severe thunderstorms. Similar to last year’s winter.

Even thought we may have weeks of below average temperatures, temperatures will be slightly above to above average. How warm will depend on if La Nina sticks around or starts to fade.

The drought will likely continue into 2023. East TN will likely have near average rainfall while North Georgia has below average rainfall.

Watch for February to be an active month due to a possible pattern flip. I expect rainfall and storm tracks to increase for February. Once again, similar to the past few years concerning the month of February. We may also see an uptick in storm chances. February is when we could start to put a dent in the ongoing drought.

Early 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast.

Next month will start the official date of hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin. Hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th. Typically, August, September, and October are the most active months. In fact, the peak of the hurricane season is August 15th-October 20th. Every year I release two hurricane season forecasts. The first one is before the start of the hurricane season. The second one I release in August right before the peak of the season. The question is what type of year are we going to have? I plan to answer that in my annual Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast.

Before I begin I think it is important to look at least year. If you remember last year I originally predicted 14-19 named storms due to La Nina potentially fading. However, In August the La Nina pattern was still active so I increased the storm total to 16-21 named storms, 6-9 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. The 2021 season finished with 21 named storms, 7 becoming hurricanes, and 4 becoming major hurricanes (categories, 3, 4 and 5). Therefore 2021 was another above average season. Since 1995 an average season will have 13-14 named storms, 6-7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.

I think the 2022 season is going to be above average. I am forecasting 16-21 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes. I am basing my forecast on several variables. First, we are still in a weak La Nina pattern. La Nina tends to favor above average seasons. However, La Nina is showing signs of potentially fading and conditions changing to Neutral. Neutral conditions tend to favor slightly above average seasons. Water temps in the ENSO region are -0.5°C below average. That is right on the threshold of La Nina/Neutral pattern. Neutral is when water temps in the ENSO region of the Pacific are -0.5°C-0.5°C from average for at least 4 months.

The second variable I looked at was water temps in the Atlantic Basin. Water temps in the Gulf, Caribbean, and Central Atlantic are above average. Above average water temps will provide fuel for developing storms. Water temps in the far Atlantic, also known as the Cape Verde Region, are average to slightly above average. The far Atlantic area becomes a development hot spot from August to early October as tropical waves move off the coast of Africa.

The third variable I looked at was past seasons. I believe the past can tell us a lot. I mainly looked at past seasons were ENSO conditions changed from La Nina to Neutral.

The 2001 Season-La Nina faded in the spring of 2001. This was the same La Nina that developed in Spring of 1998. The 1998-2001 La Nina lasted 3 years. Conditions changed to Neutral. The 2001 season was above average with 15 named storms, 9 becoming hurricanes and 4 becoming major hurricanes. The most destructive storms were Tropical Storm Allison, Hurricane Iris, and Hurricane Michelle.

The 2012 Season- The La Nina that developed in 2010 faded in the summer of 2012. Conditions changed to Neutral in time for the hurricane season. The 2012 season was way above average with 19 named storms, 10 becoming hurricanes and 2 becoming major hurricanes. The 2012 season was also infamous for Hurricane Sandy.

The 2018 Season-The La Nina that developed in 2016, and caused a very active 2017 season faded in the summer. Conditions changed to Neutral for the Hurricane Season. The 2018 season was slightly above average with 15 named storms, 8 becoming hurricanes, and 2 becoming major hurricanes. The most destructive storms were Hurricanes Florence and Michael.

In summary, I am forecasting an above average season for the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season due La Nina to Neutral Conditions. However, I am not expecting anything crazy like the 2020 season in which 30 named storms developed. The 2020 season was caused by a strong La Nina. I also want to stress it only takes one named storm to make it a bad year for a state, territory, or country.

Winter Weather 2021/2022 Forecast.

Winter will be here before you know it, so the question is what type of winter will our area have? Will we have a mild winter, a wild winter, or a cold winter? I will answer that in my annual Winter Weather forecast. Before I begin, I think it is important to take a look at last year’s winter. Last year’s winter was a variety as we had periods of warmth and cold for the valley. For the valley the average winter mean temp (highs and lows averaged together) was 45 degrees. That is 1 degree above average as the average is 44 degrees. Seasonal rainfall was near average at 14 inches. The mountains had a below average winter temperature wise, and above average rainfall wise. In terms of snow the valley was below average. Most locations in the valley averages 3-4 inches of snow. A lot of valley places with the exception of the Knoxville Metro Area got 1 inch of snow at best. The mountains had above average snowfall.

Last year’s winter was driven by a La Nina pattern. This was the same La Nina that produced severe weather outbreaks for our area in 2020. In addition, it was responsible for a record setting 2020 hurricane season. The upcoming winter is going to be influenced by another La Nina. We are in another La Nina pattern. This La Nina is weaker than 2020 & early 2021’s La Nina, but it is still going to influence our weather. So what does this mean for our area?

I am forecasting a wild winter for our area. I think we will have periods of cold weather and periods of warm weather for the valley. Typically during weak La Nina’s we tend to have a mix of everything. However, even though we will have a mix of temperatures. I think overall our temperatures will be slightly above average for the valley. In fact, It will be similar to this past winter. Last December and January were near average temperatures wise. But, then we had that warm period in Late January early February which pushed temps slightly above average overall. That will probably happen again this year.

Rainfall, will start off average to below average and then I think rainfall will pick up in February. North Georgia will probably start off below average and Southeast TN will be near average. But I believe in February we will start to pick up in rainfall. In a La Nina winter we are typically in the middle. Areas to our south usually have below average rainfall. While Kentucky, North East Tennessee, and West Virginia usually have above average rainfall in a La Nina winter. The Gulf of Mexico’s water temps are above average and will likely continue to be above average. This means any storm system will have lots of moisture to work with. During a La Nina the Jet Stream, which carries storm systems stays to our north until February. Starting in February the jet stream usually starts to dip southward. That is why February in La Nina’s can be stormy and wet. If you remember February’s of 2017, 2018, 2020 and 2021 were above average in rainfall. These years were also La Nina years.

In terms of winter precipitation it is tricky during a La Nina winter. The main reason is our area is a battle ground zone. As we saw this past year the 32 degree line is critical in winter precipitation. A few degrees can make a significant difference in who gets what. There were several times this past winter our area was right on the edge when it came to winter precipitation. If your location was above the 32 degree line you got rain, if your location was at the 32 degree line you got ice, if your location was below the 32 degree line your area got snow. There were several times the 32 degree line developed around Athens last year. Athens had freezing precipitation while locations below Athens had chilly rains. Locations above Athens such as the Knoxville area saw above average snowfall.

For this upcoming winter there are probably going to be a few times were we will be on the edge. That is why forecasting snowfall and ice is tricky during a La Nina. It will depend on were the 32 degree line sets up. While, we think about winter precipitation during the winter months we also have to beware of another threat. Sometimes in Winter when conditions are right our area has had severe weather. If you remember in 2020 we had the January Derecho, which produced widespread wind damage and a tornado in Blue Ridge Georgia. Also in February 2020 we had a storm system that produced flooding and severe weather, including a brief tornado in Gordon County GA.

I believe we will also have a threat for severe storms this coming winter. The Gulf of Mexico being warmer than average is always concerning. If we get a mild period and an active jet stream it would not be impossible to have winter severe weather. Especially in February, which climatology, is when we normally start to see our chances for severe weather increase.

In conclusion:

A mix of cold and warmth but temps overall will be slightly above average in the valley. The Mountains will probably see slightly below average to near average temperatures.

Slightly below average to near average rainfall to start off. But rainfall will probably pick up in February.

Winter precipitation we will probably be on the edge

Chance for a few severe weather events esp as we transition to spring.

So what did I base my forecast on?

When I made my forecast I looked at what is going on in the Equatorial Pacific Osculation (ENSO). The ENSO tells if La Nina, El Nino, or Neutral will develop. This year as I stated we are once again in a La Nina pattern. As water temps in the ESNO region are below normal. I also looked at the Gulf of Mexico water temps. The Gulf’s water temps have a huge influence on our weather.

I also looked at past weak or early developing La Nina’s. The years I looked at were 2004, 2008, and 2010.

In the winter of 2004 a weak La Nina had developed, this La Nina would become a strong La Nina during the summer. Winter of 2004 had slightly above average temps. In terms of winter weather, we had ice storms, and a few severe thunderstorm events.

In the winter of 2008 a La Nina was developing. This La Nina would become a stronger La Nina in the Spring and Summer months. Winter of 2008 was a wild winter for our area. We had cool periods but periods of warmth. Temps ended up being slightly above average. Precipitation was average. In terms of weather events, we had snow, an ice storm, and a severe weather outbreak.

In winter of 2010 a La Nina was just developing. We had some very chilly periods in January of 2010, but then we had a warm period in February. February was above average temperature wise that it caused the entire winter to be above average overall, despite a very chilly January. Rainfall was above average esp in the later part of Winter.

I also looked at how the animals were behaving and I saw some interesting things. I looked at the Woolly Worms as their colored pattern can be a clue in the upcoming winter. In the valley a lot of the Woolly Worms were a mix of brown and black. Woolly Worms with a mixed colored pattern can sometimes indicate a mixed winter of warm and cold. As I went higher in elevation I saw solid white Woolly Worms. Sometimes a solid white Woolly Worm indicates a cold and icy winter. I also looked at hornets and how they built their nest. The hornet nest were pretty close to average not very low but not very high. This can indicated a near average to slightly above average winter.

My 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast.

June is when the Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season starts. The season runs from June 1st to November 30th. The peak months are August, September, and October. In fact, the peak of the hurricane season is August 15th-October 20th. Since 1950 an average season has 11-12 named storms, 6-7 hurricanes and 2-3 major hurricanes (categories 3,4 and 5). However, since 1995 the average has been 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. Since 1995 we have been in the second active phase of the Atlantic Basin. An active phase features a series of above average seasons. The first active phase was from 1930-1969. 1995 started a series of above average seasons and that is why our average of named storms has increased from the long term average.

Last year was a record breaking season with 30 named storms, 14 became hurricanes and 7 became major hurricanes. 2020 broke 2005’s record for most named storms in the Atlantic Basin. The previous record was set in 2005. 2005’s Hurricane Season had 28 named storms, 15 hurricanes and 7 major hurricanes. The reason last year was so active was due to a strong La Nina. So what type of season will 2021 be? I will answer that in my annual Hurricane Season Forecast. As always I release 2 forecasts one before the season starts and another one before the peak of the season.

I think we are going to have an above average season. Right now I am forecasting 14-19 named storms, 7-9 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes. There are several variables I looked at. First, water temps are running above average. Hurricanes need water temps of at least 80 degrees Fahrenheit (27 Celsius), moist atmosphere conditions, and less wind shear to develop. With water temps being above average it will provide fuel for any storm that develops if the other conditions are in place.

Second conditions in the Pacific Equatorial Osculation are on the verge of being Neutral to La Nina. Neutral is when water temps in the Pacific Equatorial Osculation are between 0.5 to -0.5 degrees Celsius from the average for a minimum of 4 months. La Nina is when temps in the Equatorial Osculation are -0.5 degrees Celsius or colder from the average, for a minimum of 4 months. Neutral and La Nina conditions favor above average Atlantic Hurricane Seasons. Neutral favors slightly above average hurricane seasons while La Nina favors above average hurricane seasons. Last year a strong La Nina dominated much of 2020.

Right now water temps in the Pacific Equatorial Osculation are -0.5 degrees Celsius below average. That is right on the verge of being Neutral/La Nina. Sometimes La Nina’s will cycle through. In the past we have seen La Nina’s show signs of fading only to restrengthen the following year. That could very well happen this year. We could see last year’s La Nina make a comeback in this year’s Summer or Fall. Even if conditions were to stay in Neutral that would still favor above average activity.

Third I looked at past Neutral to La Nina or La Nina to Neutral Atlantic Hurricane seasons. I believe the past can offer huge clues on what type of season we will have. Especially with similar conditions. For the most part past seasons were conditions went from Neutral to La Nina or La Nina to Neutral had above average activity.

1998-2000 Hurricane Seasons. A strong La Nina rapidly developed in 1998. This La Nina would last 2 years. However, this La Nina Cycled through twice. 1998 had 14 named storms, 10 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. In the Spring of 1999 La Nina showed signs of fading, but in the fall of 1999 La Nina restrengthened. The 1999 Season had 12 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes. In 2000 the La Nina again showed signs of fading only to restrengthen in the Summer of 2000. The 2000 season had 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.

2003 Hurricane Season. The 2003 season was mostly Neutral. However, La Nina conditions were slowly developing. This would set the stage for 2004 and 2005’s La Nina. 2003’s Hurricane Season had 16 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.

2007/2008 Hurricane Seasons. 2007 started off in an El Nino pattern. This was the El Nino from 2006. By Spring conditions were neutral and then in the fall conditions changed to La Nina. 2007’s Hurricane Season had 15 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. There was a lot of activity in the fall months. 2008 was dominated by the La Nina that formed in fall of 2007. The 2008 Hurricane Season had 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes.

2010-2012 Hurricane Seasons. In 2010 a strong La Nina developed. The 2010 season had above average activity with 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. In 2011 the La Nina weakened a little bit but quickly restrengthened in the spring. In 2011 there were 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. La Nina finally faded in Spring of 2012 as conditions changed to Neutral. 2012 was still an above average season with 19 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes.

2018 Hurricane Season. The 2016 and 2017 seasons were above average due to a La Nina that developed in the fall of 2016. 2017 was when the La Nina was at its peak. In the spring of 2018 the La Nina faded and conditions changed to Neutral. The 2018 season was still above average with 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes.

Overall, due to above average water temps, Pacific Equatorial Osculation conditions being Neutral/La Nina, and what the past tells. I think we will have an above average hurricane season with 14-19 named storms, 7-9 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes. As always I will look at conditions again in August and give my second forecast right before the peak of the hurricane season.

I want to stress though it only takes one destructive storm to make it a bad year. So always be prepared. Some seasons have had below average activity but destructive storms. 1983 and 1992 are good examples. The 1983 season only had 4 named storms. But Alicia made landfall in Texas as a category 3 hurricane. Alicia caused over $3 Billion dollars in damage. 1992 only had 7 named storms but it was the year of Hurricane Andrew. Andrew made landfall in Florida as a category 5 hurricane and later Louisiana as a category 3 hurricane. Overall Andrew caused over $26.5 Billion dollars in damages.

While us weather forecasters/meteorologist can predict how a hurricane season can go. We cannot predict how many storms will make landfall and were they will make landfall. As stated this is why you always need to be prepared. Now would be a good time to develop a Tropical Storm/Hurricane plan with your family. If you live in an area that has evacuation routes know were you will need to go in case a storm threatens. Have a first aid kit, save all important records on a flash drive, have contact information, have non perishable food items that can last an entire week and plenty of water.

Baseball teams that could lose 100 games for 2021

The National Football League season has come and gone. Now, it is time for Major League Baseball. Pitchers and players have already reported for spring training sites. Late in February into March regular spring training games will start. Currently, opening day is scheduled to start on April 1st. After, only playing 60 games last year a lot of players are eager to play a full season. In addition, all 30 teams are excited at getting to play a full season. Baseball in terms of revenue is America’s second most popular sport only behind the NFL. It is also our past time.

Every year there are teams that seem to flirt with a record no baseball team wants. That record is 100 or more losses. When a team looses that many games they are guaranteed a top pick in the draft. But, it also makes them one of the worst teams. Last year there were a few teams that would have come close to that awful mark in a full season. So, the question is which teams could come close or end up loosing 100 games for 2021?

(Teams are in no particular order)

The Colorado Rockies. The 2020 Colorado Rockies were not good. In 2020, the Rockies finished 26-34, which translates to a 70-92 record in a full season. This team was a huge mess in several departments. Colorado has always had a high powered offense, yet in 2020 it was not good. The Rockies finished in the middle of the pack in runs scored and in home runs in the National League. Overall, the team batted 257 not terrible but nothing real good either. Colorado, has usually finished in the top 5 in offense among the NL teams. The pitching was a huge disaster for the Rockies. The starting pitching was not terrible, but the bullpen was awful. The team’s overall ERA was a woeful 5.60. The Bullpen’s ERA was 6.80. Colorado lead the NL in most blown games.

The first week of February Colorado traded their all star third basemen, Nolan Arenado to the Cardinals. Arenado is going to be a huge loss for the Rockies. Players like Arenado do not show up every year. As a member of the Rockies Areando averaged a 290 batting average, 32 home runs, 100-110 runs batted in, and an average yearly WAR of 6. But the Arenado trade shows deeper issues for the Rockies. Several Rockies players, as reported by multiple sources have stated how the general manager has created a toxic work environment. Nolan, voiced his frustration, and it is believed this is why he waved his no trade clause.

With Nolan gone the Rockies offense will be powered by Blackmon and Story. Blackmon and Story are good players. However, outside of those 2 nobody really scares opposing teams in that lineup. Desmond, is a good clubhouse guy, but his best years are behind him. The pitching has huge question marks. This is a team in turmoil and does not have that many good pieces left. To make matters worse the farm system, which used to rank in the top 10, now ranks in the bottom. The Rockies are going to struggle a lot in 2021. Several projection sites have them winning anywhere from 60-66 games.

The Baltimore Orioles. From 2012-2016 the Orioles were a solid team as they reached the playoffs 3 times and had 5 winning seasons. In 2018, the Orioles decided to start all over. Last year, the club finished 25-35 translating to a 67-95 season in a full season. However, one reason the Orioles won 25 games was that solid start in 2020. The rest of the 2020 season the O’s were terrible. During the off season the O’s did not do anything as they are committed to their rebuild. Some of the players the O’s have are just getting experience or at the end of their careers.

The Orioles do have some decent players. One of the O’s young players Trey Mancini is expected to come back from cancer in 2021. Before his cancer Mancini was a 25-30 home run and 85-90 runs batted in player. If he is healthy it gives this lineup a huge boost. Renato Nunez showed he had pop in his bat in 2020. Alex Cobb gives them innings. The problem these are the only real pieces the O’s have. Chris Davis was once a 40 home run threat, but he is at the end of his career. The O’s are stuck with Davis for the next 2 seasons and he is limited to bench time at this point.

In 2020, the Orioles ranked 10 out of 15 AL clubs in many offense categories. Not bad but its not going to help them contend. The pitching was not too bad either ranking 9th in the AL. This leads to another issue for the Orioles. The Orioles play in a very brutal division. Their division includes: Toronto, Boston, Tampa and New York. Those 4 teams are expected to contend in 2021. In fact, those 4 teams are projected to be above 500. To make matters worse the Orioles will have to play those 4 teams a lot. In 2020, they got to play other teams, which helped them out some. 2021 will not be so kind to the Orioles. With so many unproven players, and playing in the AL east. It is hard to see the Orioles winning more than 65 games. Expect them to flirt with 100 losses again.

Pittsburgh Pirates. From 2011-2018 the Pirates had a good run in the NL Central. However, in 2019 the Pirates started a rebuild. After 2019 a lot of the roster was lost due to trades or free agency. In 2020 the Pirates committed to their young players. As a result the Pirates struggled to a 19-41 record. In a full season that would translate to a 51-52 win season. The Pirates are not going to be much better in 2021.

The Pirates are going to be counting on their young players to get more experience in 2021. This will translate to growing pains. Josh Bell finds himself as one of the few survivors of the contention teams. He will be counted on to lead and carry this club. He is really the only guy that scares opposing teams in the lineup. In 2020, the Pirates finished last or next to last in many offense categories among NL teams. The pitching staff has huge question marks. Can anybody step up to be a reliable pitcher? The Pirates also ranked in the bottom in pitching among NL teams.

To make matters worse the Pirates play in the NL Central. A division that includes the Cardinals, Brewers, and Reds. Those 3 clubs are expected to contend. Chicago is expected to start a rebuild but they are in a much better position than the Pirates. The Pirates are going to have growing pains and play in a brutal division at the same time. In my opinion, I do not see how the Pirates avoid 100 losses for 2021.

Miami Marlins. Yes, Miami had a winning record and went to the playoffs in 2020. However, Miami was helped by the schedule. They did not have to play nearly half of their season against division rivals. Also Miami was helped by the expanded playoff format. In 2021 the regular 5 team playoff from each league returns, 3 divisional champions and 2 wildcard teams. In addition, Miami will have to play nearly half of their games against the Mets, Braves, Nationals and Phillies.

Miami was also a puzzling playoff team in 2020. No offense to the Marlins but on paper they were not really impressive. The Marlins ranked 9th out of the 15 NL teams in most offense categories. Moreover, their pitching ranked 10th out of 15 NL clubs. This shows how the Marlins benefited from not having to play their rivals a lot and the expanded playoff format. The Marlins will not have that in 2021.

Still, Miami does have some good players. Anderson and Dickerson are solid players. Miami’s young pitching staff did show some promise. The Marlin’s main flaw is they are going to have to rely on their young pitching staff. Their young staff will be going against 4 teams with above average pitching staffs. The Mets, Braves, Nationals and Phillies all have very good pitching staffs. In addition, those teams have very good hitters as well. Miami looks to be over matched on paper against their division rivals. Due to these reasons the Marlins are probably going to win 60-65 games. However, unlike other teams on this list the Marlins also have the talent to avoid 100 losses. It all depends on their young pitching staff.

Texas Rangers. The Rangers moved into a new ballpark in 2020. The Rangers were not expected to contend in 2020, but they were not expected to be horrible either. The Rangers finished with a 22-38 record which translates to a 59-60 win season. Many thought Texas would be a 500 team. After, the 2020 season the Rangers have decided to change course.

The Rangers traded away Elvis Andrus, who had a concerning decline at the plate. When a player declines at age 31 it is always concerning. A player at 31 years old should still be in their prime. The Prime years are usually ages 27-36 for a ballplayer. Last year Andrus hit a woeful 194 way below his career average. The Rangers got Khris Davis in return, normally this would be a good deal. But Davis did not have a good 2020 season either. The Rangers did sign free agent David Dahl. Dahl when he is healthy is a 280 hitter with 25 home run and 80 RBI player.

The Rangers are going to have to rely on unproven players to score runs. In addition, the Rangers will have to rely on Davis rebounding from a dreadful 2020 campaign and for Dahl to stay healthy. As last season the Rangers ranked 15 out of 15 AL clubs in offense categories. The pitching is not much better as last year the Rangers had a team ERA of 5.05 good for 11th out of 15 AL clubs.

The Rangers are going to have a hard time in 2021 unless their young players step up. In addition, the Rangers play in a division that includes Houston, Anaheim, Oakland and even Seattle looks to be improved. If the Rangers struggle to score runs and get hitters out, it is going to be a long hot summer. Right now it is hard to see the Rangers not winning more than 62 games.

Detroit Tigers– The Tigers for a while were a contender in the AL Central. But after 2018 season the Tigers decided to start all over. In 2019 the Tigers only won 47 games, it was a reminder of the 2003 team that only won 43 games. Last year Detroit finished with a 23-35 record. In a full season that would translate to a 62-100 record. So how did this team get so bad?

For starters the Tigers have been run into the ground. Bad deals and trades will do that to a club. Also the farm system is just now starting to get better. This is why Detroit has been awful. Detroit was not a good team in 2020 and they are not expected to contend in 2021. In fact 2021 is expected to be brutal for Detroit for several reasons. First, Detroit’s pitching is horrible. Last year Detroit’s pitching staff had an ERA of 5.63, which was last among AL clubs. They did nothing to change that in 2021. Basically, Detroit is going to have to rely on the same staff. Second, Detroit is going to play in a division that will not be kind to them. The Twins are still contenders. Cleveland, is still a contender, The White Sox made big splashes after 2020, and the Royals are moving up. Detroit will have to play these 4 teams a lot in 2021.

Surprisingly Detroit’s offense was a bright spot in 2020. As Detroit was in the middle of the pack in terms of offense. But, Detroit did not have to play nearly half of their games against their rivals. The Twins, Cleveland, Chicago and perhaps even the Royals have decent pitching staffs. This means Detroit’s hitters will be going against them. Detroit is going to have to score to win in 2021. If the offense is a bright spot Detroit could avoid the 100 losses record. If it is not look for Detroit to suffer 100 losses or more.

The Rockies, Orioles, Pirates, Marlins, Rangers and Tigers are going to struggle in 2021. These 6 teams will likely compete for a top draft pick in 2022 as each team could suffer 100 losses or more. Now, will all 6 of these teams suffer l00 losses or more? It is a possibility but baseball history also tells us that a few of these teams will likely avoid that dreaded mark. Still, out of 30 baseball teams these 6 are the most likely to have one of the most dreaded record in baseball.

How the Rockies collapsed so quickly

In 2017 the Rockies were a surprise team as they won 87 games. By winning 87 games the Rockies earned a trip to the playoffs as a wildcard team. In 2018 the Rockies were even better, winning 91 games. In fact, in 2018 the Rockies advanced to the second round of the playoffs. It seemed like Colorado was turning things around. As from 2012-2016 the Rockies averaged 69 wins and 93 loses. Many predicted Colorado to be a factor for years. The team was expected to challenge the Dodgers in 2019. In 2019 the Rockies collapsed as they struggled to a 71-91 record. The same team that nearly won the NL west the previous year barely avoided a last place finish. 2020 was a 60 game season due to the Covid-19 pandemic, but expectations were high. Instead the Rockies struggled to a 26-34 season in a full season that would translate to a 70-92 record.

2021 had some high hopes , but those quickly came crashing down. As all star player Nolan Arenado was traded to the Cardinals. As part of the deal Nolan will get an extra year with his new team. The Rockies paid the Cardinals $50 million. Colorado fans were outraged because a player like Nolan does not show up that often. It was after the 2018 season that Arenado signed a 8 year $260 million deal. With Nolan gone the Rockies are certainly not going to contend in 2021. As I wrote in my last blog the Rockies are not a good team. How did this team go from being a contender to a collapse quickly?

Colorado’s problems began starting in 2017, and continued after 2018. The Rockies were a special team from 2017-2018. The Lineup consisted of , in no particular order, Arenado, Story, Blackmon, Dahl, and LeMahieu. That lineup was scary and generated lots of runs. But the Rockies had a decision to make in this time frame. Do they try to keep LeMahieu or let him walk? LeMahieu was considered the spark plug of the Rockies. He could hit anywhere in the lineup. LeMahieu, was a line drive hitter that could hit for power, average, and play gold glove defense. Many expected Colorado to make him a big offer. But the Rockies allowed LeMahieu to walk.

Instead General Manager Jeff Bridich spent over $100 million on the following players: Desmond, McGee, Davis, Murphy, and Iannetta. These moves left several people scratching their heads, that the Rockies would not resign LeMahieu, but would spend big on high risk players. Had Bridich made these moves a few years ago he would have been considered executive of the year. But by the time the Rockies signed these players they were on the decline. Desmond, while a good clubhouse guy, had seen his batting numbers decline before the Rockies signed him to a 5 year deal. McGee had not been consistent the previous 2 seasons. Davis, had seen a drop in his velocity on his pitches , and as a result his ERA had gone up. Murphy, had struggled with more injuries. Iannetta was at the end of his career as his defense and offense were kaput.

As one could expect this went bad for Colorado. In 2019, without LeMaheiu the Rockies relied too much on the home run. Desmond only hit 235, which is horrible for a player that plays half of his games at Coors. McGee and Davis could not hold leads. Iannetta could not block wild pitches and could not hit either. Murphy stayed more time in the training room than on the field. Bridich gave that awful defense on why he spent big money on these guys but not LeMaheiu. His response was that they could not keep LeMaheiu and he was trying to field a winning team. That was received terribly as the Rockies spent over $100 million on declining players. But did not resign one of their all star players.

Also, during the 2019 season former Rockies players stated how Bridich had created a toxic work environment. Some of the players stated how Bridich would disrespect players even when they were doing things right. Moreover, the same players also stated how Bridich would threaten to release or trade them. Nolan Areando, criticized the front office for not doing enough to win. In fact, Arenado criticized the front office for spending huge amounts of money on declining players. Things continued to unravel for the Rockies.

Going into the 2020 season several Rockies players, who wished to remain anonymous, confirmed what their former teammates stated about the work environment. Arenado, also confirmed that the statements were indeed true. Bridich, started to try to trade Arenado. Basically, Bridich’s actions confirmed what the players stated were true. Nolan stated how he felt very disrespected by the top brass. Trevor Story, defended his friend and also confirmed how the top brass had created a toxic place. Monfort tried to smooth things over stating how things were fine. Several baseball reporters described the meeting between Bridich, Monfort, and Arenado as cold as ice.

It was only a matter of time before Areando was traded. As I stated Areando was traded to the Cardinals. In a statement Areando stated how he was happy to be a Cardinal. He also explained how he was happy about the Cardinal front office because they are constantly trying to contend. He ended his statement that he wanted to be a Cardinal for a long time and finish his career as a Cardinal. I took it from his statement that this was a player who had been miserable. This was also a player that was glad to get out of a bad situation. I may make some fans mad, but Arenado is in a much better situation in my opinion. He is going to a team with a good chance to contend every year, a team that cares about its players, and a team that many describe as one of the best teams to play for.

Another player that was allowed to walk was David Dahl. Dahl, had struggled with injuries, but when he was on the field he was good. Dahl, could hit around 280-300 with 25 home run potential. After the 2020 season the Rockies let Dahl go via free agency. The Rangers quickly picked him up. Dahl seemed relieved about joining his new team. As he called it a better environment and a better opportunity. It sounds like Dahl was also happy to be getting out of a bad situation.

Trevor Story, is one of Arenado’s best friends. As I mentioned, Story defended his teammate and friend. Bridich has stated with Areando gone how the goal is to extend story. In my opinion that ship has sailed for several reasons. First, Story has talked about the toxic work environment. Second, like his friend Areando Story also criticized the front office for its bad moves. Keep in mind, Story is a free agent after 2021. It appears that Story is already disgruntled and that is not good for the Rockies . What is interesting is St. Louis will have some contracts expiring after the 2021 season, allowing them to spend more. It is possible that the Cardinals could try to bring in Story later on. Keep in mind Story’s 2 top friends are Cardinals: Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt. It is possible they could recommend the Cardinal’s front office try to sign Story. Other teams that could try to land Story are the: Mets, Redsox, Rangers and Angels.

The Rockies collapsed due to bad decisions. You cannot allow an all star player to walk and spend over 100 million on declining players. In hopes that the team will contend. Several general managers have gotten fired for making such moves. Imagine if a General Manger for the Cardinals, Dodgers, Yankees, and Red Sox did that, they would be fired. That is exactly how the Red Sox GM got fired. He spent over $120 million on questionable players. The Red Sox tanked in the standings and he was fired. A team that makes horrible decisions like that sets themselves up to fail.

The Rockies also collapsed due to creating a toxic work environment. You cannot treat players badly and expect them to stay. Some players deserve to be criticized. But Bridich criticized his players when they were doing things right. In addition, you cannot threaten players like Bridich did. That creates a toxic work environment. It also sends a message that no player would want to come to the Rockies. Moreover, it causes players to either want out or not resign. Tulo is another good example as he revealed he wanted to be traded in 2015 due to the toxic environment. In 2015 Tulo got his wish as he was traded to Toronto and as a result got to appear in the playoffs twice.

This is how the Rockies collapsed quickly. By making horrible choices and creating a toxic environment the Rockies have set themselves up to fail. It is going to take several years for this team to recover. With Arenado, and Dahl gone that just leaves Blackmon and Story as the only guys that scares anybody in a lineup. In my opinion Story is on his way out at sometime. The bad news is the Rockies farm system is depleted as its going to take years to replace talent. The Rockies have been run into the ground and it is hard to see how the Rockies avoid 100 loses in the next couple of seasons. The decent runs of 2017/2018 will soon be forgotten and it may take the Rockies a long time to contend again.

The Rockies set themselves up to fail and can they recover ?

Things were starting to come along for the Colorado Rockies in 2016. In 2016, the Rockies started to climb in the National League West. The Previous 4 seasons the Rockies had been 4th or last place. In 2016 they finished third. Due to a new front office and manager it seemed like Colorado was finally turning around. In 2017 the Rockies made the playoffs as a wildcard team. In 2018 the Rockies finished 1 game behind the NL West Division Champs the Dodgers. Colorado, won 91 games games and advanced to the second round of the playoffs . But things came to a crashing halt. The 2019 Rockies were dreadful and finished with a 71-91 record. In 2020 the Rockies finished 26-34. So how did this team set itself up to fail?

The Rockies brought in General Manager Jeff Bridich to try to turn the club around. At first it seemed like he was doing that. However, Bridich made some very bad baseball moves. From 2017 to 2019 Bridich spent over 100 million on the following players: Ian Desmond, Jake McGee, Wade Davis, and Daniel Murphy. Had Bridich made these moves a few years ago he would have been considered one of the top GM’s in the game. The Rockies signed these players while they were starting to decline. As a member of the Rockies, Desmond has hit with a 245 bating average. While that is not terrible the Rockies are not paying him over $14 million to hit 245. In addition, a 245 batting average for a player, that plays half of his games at Coors, is terrible. McGee as a member of the Rockies had an ERA of 5.45. He could not hold leads. Davis was even worse averaging an ERA of 6.4 and blew the most leads in the NL. Murphy, at age 34 should have had plenty of baseball left. On average the prime years for a ball player is 27-36. But Murphy had struggled with injuries while he was with the Nationals. He was considered a High Risk player when the Rockies signed him. He struggled with injuries and his bat was nothing that special.

Due to the Rockies spending over $100 million on these players. They could not keep DJ LeMahieu. LeMahieu, was a special player a guy that could hit for average as well as power. In addition, he was the spark plug of the Rockies. When he left after the 2018 season the Rockies offense relied on the home run too much. Also after the 2018 season the Rockies signed Arenado to a 8 year deal with an opt out clause after 2021. After the horrible 2019 season. Nolan Arenado voiced his outrage. Arenado also complained how Bridich made the Rockies a toxic work environment. Moreover, Arneado criticized the front office for making bad choices. Trevor Story defended and supported Arenado.

A few days ago the Rockies agreed to deal Arenado to the St. Louis Cardinals. The deal has to be approved by the Commissioner. Still, this deal is expected to go through. Fans are outraged and rightfully so. The Rockies have proved they are willing to spend big money on declining players. But are not willing to keep the players they should. Those they do try to keep they end up wanting out due to the toxic environment. Also the owners have ignored other players complains that Bridich has created a toxic environment. By their own actions the Rockies have set themselves up to fail.

Right now the Rockies are behaving like the Baltimore Orioles, from 1998-2011. The Orioles set themselves up to fail for 13 years. The Orioles traded good players away. They signed declining free agents. They also made very bad draft choices. The result was 13 long losing seasons. It would not be until 2011 that the Orioles would recover. Another team the Rockies have become is the Cleveland Browns of the NFL. From 1999-2019 the Browns were terrible. As a Browns fan it was awful. The Browns made horrible draft choices. They let good players go for declining veteran players or unproven players. In addition, the top brass accepted losing seasons. It would not be until 2019 that the browns showed life. In 2020 the Browns advanced past the 2nd round of the NFL playoffs. It took the Browns over 20 years to recover.

So can the Rockies recover? The answer is yes but drastic changes need to happen. Otherwise the Rockies are going to end up like the Orioles and Browns were. If the Rockies do not change its going to take several years to recover. DJ is gone and likely Arenado is gone. Story is going to be a free agent. As I Stated Story defended Arenado about the team not caring. In my opinion there is a good chance Story leaves.

How do the Rockies recover from this ?

The first thing the Rockies need to do is end the losing culture. When the top brass stated “if the Rockies reach the playoffs every 4 years the club is doing great “. That statement is concerning because it means the owners have accepted being mediocre. This flows down to the GM and eventually in the clubhouse. Also making bad deals also creates a losing culture. It shows good players like Arenado and Story the club is not serious. How the Rockies end the losing culture ties into the second point.

Second the Rockies need to fire Jeff Bridich. A lot of players have complained that Bridich has created a toxic work environment. Moreover, you cannot spend over $100 million on declining players and expect to win. Imagine if the Rockies could have kept LeMahieu. Instead they got stuck with bad contracts. Guys like LeMahieu, Arenado, Story and Blackmon are special. They do not show up ever year. It is looking likely that Blackmon will be the only one still around after 2021. According to several reports the Rockies farm system has been depleted. Before Bridich took over it was ranked in the top 10. As of 2019 the Rockies farm system had slid to number #23 out of 30 teams. Basically, the Rockies do not have major league ready talent to replace the parting talent. The Rockies need a GM that will make the Rockies a healthy work environment. They need a GM that will be willing to keep good talent around and not waste money on declining players. Also keeping the farm system stocked and developing talent.

The Rockies can recover from this, but it is going to take awhile. As long as the owners accept being mediocre, and as long as the Rockies keep the status quo. It will take years for this team to recover. Right now, the Rockies have set themselves up to fail for several years.

Top Weather Stories for our area in 2020

For Southeast Tennessee and North Georgia 2020’s weather can best be described as wild. Our area was hit hard with several severe weather outbreaks and floods. The main reason for a very active pattern was due to a La Nina developing. La Nina typically causes a more active storm pattern over our area. So, lets take a look back at some of the top weather stories for our area in 2020.

January 11th Derecho. Early morning on January 11th a line of storms developed stretching from Missouri all the way down to Louisiana. This line intensified as it moved east at a very fast rate of speed. By midnight the line had made it to the Carolinas. The line was classified as a Derecho. The Derecho, produced severe thunderstorms. The thunderstorms in our area produced winds estimated at 80 mph. In addition, to the widespread damaging winds. An EF1 tornado was spawned in Fannin County Ga. Our area had widespread wind damage to houses, power poles, and large trees.

February floods. The month of February was very wet for our area. Most places observed 11-12 inches of monthly rainfall. Chattanooga TN, Cleveland TN and Dalton GA observed 11.5 inches of rain. February saw lots of storm systems move over our area. This created flash flooding. February 5th and 6th produced 5-6 inches of rain in a 48 hour period. Some of the thunderstorms turned severe. On February 6th an EF0 tornado touched down in Gordon County GA.

March 28th Severe Thunderstorms– A squall line moved through our area producing numerous severe thunderstorms with damaging winds. Lots of counties especially in Southeast TN had wind damage. The Weather Service estimated that some of the thunderstorms may have produced winds up to 70 mph.

Easter 12th 2020 Tornado Outbreak– A powerful storm system moved from the southwest and over our area. This storm system produced numerous thunderstorms with damaging winds and tornadoes. A total of 10 tornadoes touched down in our area. Sadly 11 people in our area lost their lives to the tornadoes.

Tornadoes confirmed

EF2 Chatooga and Walker Counties in Georgia. This tornado did a trail of destruction from Summerville to LaFayette. This tornado destroyed numerous barns, and homes.

EF2 Murray County GA- This tornado destroyed a trailer park and several homes. This tornado was responsible for 8 deaths. Damage was the worst in the Cisco community.

EF1 Dade County GA- This tornado touched down in DeKalb County Alabama and continued into Dade County. The worst damage was done around Trenton.

EF3 Catoosa County GA, Hamilton County TN and Bradley County TN. This tornado touched down in Fort Oglethrope Ga and continued going into Brainerd TN (Hamilton County TN) and lifting in McDonald TN (Bradley County TN). This tornado destroyed numerous buildings, and homes. A total of 3 people were killed.

EF2 Bradley County TN. A tornado touched down in the East Cleveland area destroying several homes. A church was also destroyed.

EF1 Bradley County TN. Another tornado touched down in the Northeastern part of the county. Several barns and houses sustained damage.

EF1 Bradley/Polk County TN. A 4th tornado impacted Bradley County. This tornado touched down near Highway 64 and moved into Polk Count TN. The tornado destroyed several power poles, and uprooted several large trees.

EF0 Floyd County GA. A brief tornado touched down in the east side of the city of Rome. Lots of power poles destroyed. A few homes had roof damage.

EF0 Floyd County GA. Another tornado touched down in the Cave Spring community. Damage was done to power lines.

EF1 Cherokee and Pickens Counties in GA. This tornado destroyed barns, large trees, and power lines. A few homes had damage.

May 3rd 2020 Severe Thunderstorm Outbreak- Severe thunderstorms developed to our west and organized into a squall line. This line of severe storms produced widespread wind damage. The storms damaged power lines, uprooted large trees, and several homes had damage.

A hot summer- Starting in May our area had lots of days of temps getting in the mid to upper 90’s. Overall, Summer temps ran a good 4-6 degrees above average. Some locations hit 100 degrees a few times.

A very wet October. October in our area was very wet. This was due to several hurricanes making landfall along the Gulf Coast. The remnants of these hurricanes moved over our area producing heavy rain.

The 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season was a record season. A total of 30 named storms formed, 13 became hurricanes and 6 became major hurricanes (categories 3, 4 and 5). This broke the previous record of 28 named storms set in 2005.

A White Christmas A storm system brought thunderstorms and rain to our area. As temps dropped into the low 30’s the rain changed to snow. By Christmas most locations had snow even some valley locations got 1 inch of snow. Thus, meeting the criteria for a White Christmas. Also Christmas was very cold compared to the previous past few Christmas which had been above average temperature wise.

Winter forecast for 2020/2021

Winter is right around the corner. So the question is what type of winter will Southeast Tennessee and North Georgia Have? I will answer that in my annual winter weather forecast. But before I go into details, I like to take a look back at the previous winter.

Last year our area had a warm winter. The valley had temps 5-7 degrees above average. Meanwhile, the mountains were more seasonable temperature wise. Rainfall was way above average. The previous winter’s total rainfall was 22.35 inches. Normally winter averages 14.5 inches of rain. February had the most rainfall with 11.45 inches of rain. The previous winter also had some wild weather. On January 11th 2020 a derecho brought widespread wind damage to our area. In addition, a tornado touched down in Fannin County Georgia . On February 5th/6th another storm system produced severe weather including wind damage and a tornado in Gordon County Georgia. On February 9th some places got 2-3 inches of snow.

The previous winter, behaved more like a La Nina winter even though conditions were neutral according to NOAA. As La Nina did not officially develop until August. But, with water temps in the Equatorial zone in the Pacific ocean being -0.5 Celsius below average. It was on the threshold of a La Nina. This is what caused winter of 2020 to behave like a La Nina winter.

So what about Winter 2020/2021 for our area? This upcoming winter is going to be a La Nina winter. According to NOAA La Nina officially developed in August 2020. La Nina, typically favors a warm winter. So, here is what I am predicting for our area.

I am predicting another warm winter. Temperatures will be similar to the previous winter. I am forecasting temps to be 3-6 degrees above average for valley locations. The Mountains, should be a few degrees above average. Rainfall, is going to vary this winter. Southeast Tennessee, should have near normal rainfall. But, North Georgia will have below average rainfall. Watch for February to be active as we head into spring . The jet stream will most likely be slightly farther north due to the La Nina pattern. This favors average rainfall for most of Tennessee but below normal rainfall for Georgia.

I also suspect we will have periods of wild weather similar to the previous winter. Water temps in the Gulf of Mexico are expected to be above average. This will provide fuel for storm systems coming in. This is how sometimes during La Nina winters our area can get severe weather. I suspect we will probably have severe thunderstorms in winter this year. On the other hand, with warm Gulf of Mexico temps this could also allow ice storms. Especially when cold air is in place in front of a storm system. In this scenario warm air from the Gulf is pulled up into the atmosphere despite cold temps at the surface. This is often how our area gets freezing rain, which causes icing. If La Nina continues the jet stream will start to slide farther south in February. This is why I stated February could become active as we head into spring.

I want to stress even though I am forecasting a warm winter. It does not mean our area will not see cold spells. During La Nina winters it is not uncommon for cold spells to occur. A good example is the winter of 2010. A La Nina started to develop during the winter months of 2010. January 2010 saw some very cold temps. Some nights temps dropped into the teens. There was even some ice and snow events. But, temps warmed back up and a severe weather event occurred. Another example was February 2011. Under the influence, of La Nina February 2011 had everything, warm days, cold days, snow/ice, and even tornadoes.

In summary, expect a warm winter for our area. Parts of our area will have near average rainfall, while some parts have below average. In addition, expect wild weather such as severe weather potential, and winter events. As I stated, we will have cold spells but temps will be above average overall.

While making my forecast I looked at several variables. I looked at water temps in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. This is called the Pacific Equatorial Osculation zone. I looked at Gulf of Mexico water temps. In addition, I looked at past La Nina weather events. The previous La Nina’s 2004-2005, 2007-2008, 2010-2012, and 2016-2018 all had common themes. Temps were above average, but there was lots of wild weather.